Is 5,000 a Stop Sign for Stocks?

All of us loved the experience as much as 5,000 for the S&P 500 (SPY). However increasingly it appears like this will likely be a close to time period high for the market. Gladly there are nonetheless methods to carve out inventory market features even on this much less bullish surroundings. Funding skilled Steve Reitmeister shares his up to date buying and selling and high picks for the weeks forward.

The inventory market appears to be caught across the all time highs at 5,000 for the S&P 500 (SPY). And but beneath the floor issues are usually not so bullish.

Tech shares are lastly giving again a few of their great features and defensive shares are the market leaders. That is NOT a optimistic for these anticipating fast market upside.

Why is that?

And what’s the buying and selling plan from right here?

That’s what we are going to reply on this week’s Reitmeister Complete Return commentary.

Market Commentary

Let’s get some perspective.

The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 43% from the bear market low in October 2022. Thus, there isn’t any denying we’re in a bull market…the principle debate is when/how the following spherical of features will come our method.

It’s honest to say that this most up-to-date 20% bull run that began the start of November has grown drained. This makes 5,000 a spot of robust resistance particularly when the anticipated catalyst of Fed fee cuts hold getting pushed additional into the long run.

Friday’s larger than anticipated PPI report, on high of final weeks far too sizzling CPI report, are displaying that inflation is a bit too sticky. Add to {that a} nonetheless too sizzling US economic system (round 3%) and it says that inflationary pressures will probably persist.

The Fed has already been extra affected person than most traders predicted. This newest knowledge solely offers them extra purpose for pause calling into query whether or not Might or June would be the first fee lower. Proper now I predict neither given the inflationary info in hand coupled with the Fed’s clear desire to not act too quickly lest the flames of inflation spark up as soon as once more.

Or to place it one other method, they need the embers of inflation to be 100% put out earlier than they decrease charges to spice up the economic system. And with out that enhance to the economic system…then earnings development prospects are just too low proper now to advertise markedly larger inventory costs.

Add all of it up and it says that 5,000 ought to kind a high for fairly a bit longer. Maybe all the best way till it’s clear that the Fed will certainly lastly decrease charges.

It’s doable that shares cling to and consolidate round 5,000. But with this a lot time on our palms til the probably first fee lower, then any detrimental headline will function straightforward purpose for shares to go decrease.

This strains issues up for a reasonably typical 3-5% pullback. Wish to 4,800 which was the earlier space of resistance that ought to serve effectively as help. This makes for a cushty 4% vary for shares to maneuver round in in the interim.

This additionally makes method for a little bit of sector rotation that comes by loud and clear on this 1 week chart:

In essence you will have the massive winners of 2023, resembling Tech and Communication Providers, promoting off with extra conservative teams (Healthcare, Utilities and Client Defensive) within the plus column. The one shock is Financials main the best way. However that’s extra about that group rebounding from latest weak point as there was whispers of extra financial institution failures on the best way which haven’t come to fruition.

Buying and selling Plan

One may learn the above and assume its time to take some chips off the desk. However with over 4 many years of funding expertise beneath my belt I believe it’s unwise to struggle the first pattern.

That means that we’re little doubt in a bull market. And it might begin working at any time for any purpose. So to me this isn’t a time to take cash off the desk. Quite, it’s a time to be reflective about what firms you personal going ahead as the general market is close to absolutely valued.

The straightforward reply is to unload overvalued shares and search to personal extra undervalued choices. That is partially about business rotation the place the aforementioned 2023 leaders of Tech and Communication providers are getting very stretched. Particularly the standard suspects of the Magnificent 7 which have spent an excessive amount of time within the solar.

I’m not saying to be focus solely on the defensive teams like Healthcare, Utilities and Client Defensive. Quite I believe it’s about alternatives with Industrials, Primary Supplies and Client Cyclical that had been center of the pack final yr giving them extra room to rise.

On high of that’s shifting to smaller firms. Not saying micro caps. Extra like firms between $1 and $20 billion market cap that could be flying a bit extra beneath the radar providing extra upside potential.

Our POWR Scores system does a superb job scouting out exactly these sorts of firms with constant development prospects buying and selling at enticing valuations. It’s that mixture that’s at all times in vogue…however notably for the remainder of 2024 when the straightforward income have been made on the “title model” shares.

Now it’s time for them to take a again seat and let different worthy gamers take the lead. Extra on my favourite inventory picks within the subsequent part…

What To Do Subsequent?

Uncover my present portfolio of 12 shares packed to the brim with the outperforming advantages present in our unique POWR Scores mannequin. (Practically 4X higher than the S&P 500 going again to 1999)

This consists of 5 beneath the radar small caps not too long ago added with great upside potential.

Plus I’ve 1 particular ETF that’s extremely effectively positioned to outpace the market within the weeks and months forward.

That is all primarily based on my 43 years of investing expertise seeing bull markets…bear markets…and every little thing between.

In case you are curious to be taught extra, and need to see these fortunate 13 hand chosen trades, then please click on the hyperlink beneath to get began now.

Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >

Wishing you a world of funding success!

Steve Reitmeister…however everybody calls me Reity (pronounced “Righty”)
CEO, StockNews.com and Editor, Reitmeister Total Return

SPY shares . Yr-to-date, SPY has gained 4.51%, versus a % rise within the benchmark S&P 500 index throughout the identical interval.

Concerning the Writer: Steve Reitmeister

Steve is best recognized to the StockNews viewers as “Reity”. Not solely is he the CEO of the agency, however he additionally shares his 40 years of funding expertise within the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Be taught extra about Reity’s background, together with hyperlinks to his most up-to-date articles and inventory picks.

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