Could the Apple Vision Pro fund my retirement?

Again in July 2007, I bought my palms on the most popular tech product of the day: the unique iPhone with 4GB of storage. It value $499. Stupidly, I opened and used mine. I say “stupidly” as a result of virtually precisely 16 years later an authentic, unopened iPhone with 4GB of storage offered at public sale for $190,373.

Now, 17 years later, do I’ve an opportunity at redemption? Might the newest first-generation Apple system, the Vision Pro, which went on sale to the general public yesterday, admire in worth as a lot as that authentic iPhone did? If I had been to purchase a Imaginative and prescient Professional right this moment and go away it within the field for 20 years, might I public sale it off for six figures, giving my retirement years a pleasant monetary cushion?

The iPhone as an funding automobile

On July 16, 2023, the unique 4GB iPhone new in its field sold at an auction hosted by LCG Auctions for an eye-watering $190,372.80. There have been 28 bids on the system, and the beginning bid was a humble $10,000. Earlier than this public sale, the very best recognized value paid for an authentic iPhone (this one an 8GB model) was $63,356.40. Not too, shabby—however no six figures.

To place the latest public sale value of $190,373 into perspective, that’s a return of greater than 38,000% in simply 16 years. Apple’s precise inventory (ticker: AAPL) rose simply over 4,300% throughout that very same interval, and the NASDAQ Composite rose simply over 420%.

In different phrases, in the event you bought an authentic 4GB iPhone in 2007 and left it within the field to promote 16 years later, it will have been a greater funding determination than in the event you spent that $499 on AAPL inventory again within the day or on an index fund that mimics the NASDAQ. However simply how did that iPhone handle to outperform the Nasdaq and AAPL?

First, this specific iPhone was comparatively uncommon. When Apple unveiled the iPhone in 2007 it got here in 4GB or 8GB fashions. But Apple quickly discovered that the 8GB measurement was way more in style than the 4GB, so it shortly discontinued the smaller one. Which means that 4GB iPhones had been solely on sale for just a few months. The extra uncommon a collectible, the extra useful it’s—only a case of provide versus demand. Second, this iPhone field was unopened. Within the collectors market, regardless of if it’s motion figures or electronics, unopened gadgets fetch considerably increased costs than their opened counterparts.

For collectibles’ worth, it’s not nearly rarity

In fact, there need to be loads of unopened Android telephones with 4GB of storage from the late aughts on the market, and so they aren’t fetching six figures at public sale. So why an iPhone?

Not like different smartphones, the unique iPhone was one of many defining merchandise in tech historical past, very similar to the unique Walkman or the primary pc. And never solely did it change the technological panorama, it embedded itself within the cultural panorama. It’s the cultural significance of the unique iPhone that doubtless led to its staggering valuation.

An excellent instance of how cultural significance can result in astronomical values for a product is the comedian guide market. In 1939, the common comedian guide value ten cents. Due to the wholesome comedian collectors market right this moment (and a few inflation), many comedian books from 1939 can promote for 1000’s or tens of 1000’s, primarily because of their age and rarity. But in 2022, a duplicate of Detective Comics #27 sold for a whopping $1.74 million. The distinction between this comedian guide and different ten-cent comics from 1939? It launched Batman—the caped crusader who has since infiltrated our tradition. Batman was the archetype for almost each vigilante hero who got here after, and right this moment his legacy is value billions to DC Comics proprietor Warner Bros. Discovery.

The identical is true for the iPhone’s affect. It impressed the design of nearly each smartphone that adopted it. However greater than that, it’s the system that modified the best way we talk, store, and navigate the world. It sparked a revolution that transcended mere shopper expertise.

So, what in regards to the Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional?

Seventeen years after Apple launched that iPhone, the corporate is hoping that its newest system, the Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional, turns into a technological and cultural icon, too. However might an authentic, unopened Imaginative and prescient Professional grow to be simply as useful as the unique iPhone is right this moment?

As I’ve talked about, that will depend on two principal elements. The primary is shortage: if 100 thousand folks learn this and rush out to purchase a Imaginative and prescient Professional to maintain new in its field to promote 20 years from now, there shall be 100,000 unopened authentic Imaginative and prescient Execs 20 years from now, making them widespread, not uncommon, and thus protecting their values depressed.

However let’s say that just a few folks maintain an authentic Imaginative and prescient Professional unopened and in pristine situation. Might these fetch six figures twenty years from now?

That largely will depend on how clients and our wider tradition react to the brand new product—and the way Apple’s spatial pc modifications the expertise panorama within the many years forward—if it does in any respect. If the Apple Imaginative and prescient Professional actually kicks off the period of mass spatial computing and alters how we talk, eat, and work, then sure, it is going to mark one other inflection level in private expertise and probably fetch a large sum.

But when the Imaginative and prescient Professional doesn’t grow to be a culturally defining system, an authentic new-in-box one 20 years from now isn’t more likely to see the 38,000% return the 4GB iPhone has. Who is aware of—possibly it gained’t even fetch the $3,499 it retails for right this moment.

I, for one, is not going to be shopping for a Imaginative and prescient Professional to maintain to assist fund my future retirement. Solely time will inform if I remorse this as a lot as I remorse opening my 4GB iPhone.